2. Guideline development
We propose different isolation guidelines accounting of the heterogeneity in viral dynamics using viral dynamics model.
Isolation of COVID-19 patients has been implemented in most countries since the pandemic started. For example, in Singapore, isolation was recommended for 7 or 14 days for vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, which is due to the difference in viral load dynamics (i.e., viral load over the course of infection). However, except vaccination status, the current isolation guideline recommends the same length of isolation for all COVID-19 patients (the fixed-period guideline). As is suggested elsewhere, there is huge variability in viral load dynamics among individuals with the same vaccination status.
Thus, we propose different isolation guidelines accounting of the heterogeneity in viral dynamics to optimize the length of isolation each patient (or groups). For comparison of isolation guidelines, we use two metrics: the length of redundant isolation period (burden) and the probability of prematurely ending isolation (risk) (Figure). The project findings are expected to support development and assessment of different isolation guidelines in-silico. If successful, this approach can reduce both the individual and societal impact of the pandemic and to provide a framework that could be applied to other emerging or remerging infectious diseases.
